Showing posts with label UMS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UMS. Show all posts

Friday, 11 March 2016

Bought Essex Rental / Updates on several position / re-entered UMS United medical

Essex Rental

Essex Rental (ticker:ESSX) is up 30% on higher than average volume today. There is a write-up on seekingalpha. I have not much to add. The company has two subsidiaries. One is worth zero and the other more than the current market cap of Essex Rental. Because of the price action today, I believe now is a good time to initiate a position. Technically the debt of the worthless sub should be non-recourse. Maybe someone knows more. This is a specualative position and liquidity is low. This has to be sized accordingly.

Update Cleco

I have decided to hold on to the position after the sale was rejected by the commision. The hearing was webcasted and I listened to it. Should have sold the position with a small gain as soon as I realized a negative outcome is probable. The decision process looks very non fact-based to me. Although the decision to reject may be right. It looks like it played a role that the buyer was not American...

Update Medisana

As expected the money has arrive in the bank account. This was a nice gain in a short time period.

Medisana€ 2.80€ 2.702/25/20163/3/20163.70%

Update SPIL

The offer might not go through. Good that is a just an odd-lot. The downside should not be high. SPIL is not expensive at this price. The position is at a small loss. If this gets slaugthered as a broken arb I may increase the position

Spil$7.55$7.561/15/2016yes-0.13%

Update KWG Komunale Wohnen

At last Conwert has come out with a offer to acquiry shares of KWG. Because of the complex land transfer tax in Germany the company does not tender for all remaining shares. It is important not to get over 95%. The price on offer is €10.80. This was one of the more successful position with an IRR of 26.2% since the start of 2014.

KWG Komunale Wohnen€ 10.56€ 6.361/6/2014yes66.04%

Update Apple

As written this was a short-term play. As you could have seen on the portfolio tab of the blog, the position was already sold again. Yes, I think Apple is still undervalued... It is just that I also want to hold some cash. Since 2012 I went with near 100% stock at all times.

Apple$101.96$96.201/15/20163/4/20165.99%

Update snow

Same with SNOW. The tendered odd-lot was accepted and the position eliminated. I am not bullish on SNOW as a core long position because the maintenance capex looks high to me.

Snow$9.00$8.511/15/20162/11/20165.76%

Update Dream Global

Obviously with the current decision of the ECB and the low interest rate environment German Real estate is still very attractive. DRG has started to rise. There is also a write-up on seekingalpha. Not much to add here. This a big position and I intend to trim a little bit at higher prices.

Dream Global ReitCA$ 8.68CA$ 8.3012/2/2015yes6.18%

Update Pfandbriefbank 


Dt. Pfandbriefbank€ 9.49€ 8.662/5/2016yes9.58%

 This is a typical case of being early. Six days after purcase on 2/11 the stock was as cheap as €7.43. I did not dare to increase the already full position. That is the disadvantage of a bank stock it is not good to average down because you will get diluted at the buttom in most cases. Although this time no one already knew more...

Just look at the chart:



I am very happy with the results this year sofar. This also reminds me of the time when I bought a Greek stock in their crisis. The next day it was down 10% on one day and I felt terrible about my timing.

Re-entered UMS

UMS was already part of the blog portfolio:

UMS€ 10.15€ 9.409/5/20149/22/20147.98%

UMS€ 10.88€ 9.529/5/20144/28/201514.29%

Liquidity is very low but with patient limit orders, it was possible to built a small position for the blog again.

UMS€ 3.31€ 3.253/11/2016yes1.85%

If everything goes according to plan, it would look like this:

UMSFRA:UMS3.31-8.06%8.76%3.6liquidation
pre-tax IRR46.00%5/31/2016

Please fell free to comment and do your own homework as always!

Tuesday, 28 April 2015

Sold UMS

After the shares went ex the dividend of €7.53 and the price did drop less, I sold the shares.


UMS€ 10.88€ 9.529/5/20144/28/201514.29%-9.76%23.05%

The return was 14.29% and 23.05% annualized respectively. The underperformance compared to the S&P500 in € of 9.76% is explained by the fall of the Euro. Furthermore this is a uncorrelated special situation (here: liquidation), for which the S&P500 is not the best bench anyways. This was by far my biggest position in the last months and in connection with some trading around and the tender offer the actual pre-tax IRR was a bit higher than shown.

The current implied IRR does not meet my total return hurdle regardless of current market situation:



buyliquidation
cashflow-3.393.6
date4/28/20155/31/2016
pre-tax IRR5.65%

If the IRR goes above 10% again, I will reevaluate the situation.

Tuesday, 28 October 2014

Sold Covidien / Better timeline for UMS special situation

Covidien

Having bought the Covidien at discounts well above 10% I have exited the position completely. The situation looks like this as of now 10/28/2014:



covidien
cash35.1935.19
medtronic0.95663.49

implied value bid98.68

price covidien90.12

discount-8.67%

upside9.50%
medtronic break-even price
57.46

If the spread to the implied value of Medtronic's bid to aquire Covidien rises again, the position will probably be established once again. On the Ideas tab of the blog you can follow my trades in Covidien, which I try to update regularly. As the situation at Shire has shown this type of investment is no true value investment, but more speculative.
I have been long Covidien before the bid of Medtronic and think the long-term downside if the bid does not go through and the market closes for the next 10 years is not huge.

UMS

I have updated my expected IRR due to UMS providing more visibility re the timeline of its liquidation. You can find the CEO's speech in German here. Pre-tax the situation could look like this:


buydividend 1dividend 2
cashflow-9.557.53.6
date10/28/20145/31/20155/31/2017
pre-tax IRR13.54%


If one includes the effect of taxes of the typical German retail investor the situation could look like this:


buydividend 1dividend 2tax refund
cashflow-9.557.53.6-5.8
date10/28/20145/31/20155/31/20173/31/2018
tax on 1/2
0.98906250.9495-1.52975
net cashflow-9.556.51093752.65051.52975
taxrate0.26375


after-tax IRR8.15%



Instead of 2016 for the second dividend I have used 2017 to be on the safe side, because there could be obstacles to liquidate the whole company already on 2016. Additionally I do not know how much of the dividends will be tax exempt, so I have modelled for the dividends to be half tax-exempt. Depending on the individual situation the timing of the tax refund will differ of course. If I am right the situation is more interesting for tax-exempt investors than for retail investors. Liquidity is way lower than for e.g. Covidien and I plan to actively trade around the position. The upside is capped, but the downside is still there in these situations. If the pre-tax IRR falls below 10% I would start to sell.

The current IRR looks promising compared to 5yr Bunds with 0.16% YTM.

As always: Do your own research and use limit orders for UMS.

Friday, 5 September 2014

Event-driven: UMS and Covidien

Potential liquidation of UMS United Medical Systems International AG

On August, 14th, the company announced  the sale of all shares in United Medical Systems (DE), Inc., Massachusetts, USA for €56.4m. With 4.757.668 shares this equals €11.85 per share compared to the share price of €9.56. Although "customary transaction expenses will be deducted hereof."

For the sale to go through an approval at the  extraordinary shareholders' meeting on September, 25th is required. The company has already secured about 38% of the total votes:

Major shareholders of the Company, namely (i) Thomas J.C. Matzen GmbH, Hamburg, (ii) Jorgen Madsen, Bolton (Massachusetts, USA), (iii) MaWoBi Beteiligungsgesellschaft mbH, Hamburg, (iv) Marina Bello-Biedermann, Hamburg and (v) Norbert and Bärbel Heske, Türkenfeld, who in all hold about 38 % of the shares of the Company, have on the initiative of and vis-à-vis the Company (in each case individually) expressed their intent to support this transaction and to vote in favor of the sale of UMS USA to the Purchaser on the upcoming EGM.
If the sale goes through UMS AG will be left with no operation and just one employee (as of 12/31/2013).
simplified structure [UMS AG]
 In this case the management plans to put the liquidation to vote at the 2015 AGM and wants to pay a  substantial dividend and the rest in the course of the liquidation. This means the time value is unsure as we don't have a clear schedule with time and amounts for the time being.

Chart UMS AG [yahoo]
As the price is not much above the undisturbed price on August, 13th of €9.29 the downside seems to be limited. Given the low interest rate environment of today not much time value will be lost in the potential liquidation. Additionally one gets the optionality of something however unlikely better happening. A position in UMS AG was initiated at €9.40.

write-up from 2012 (value uncovered) for general information on the business
documents regarding the proposed sale

Covidien: Merger-arbitrage

I recommend reading the seeking alpha article of Mr Teicher

Google spreadsheet with implied discount: Link

For the portfolio a position in COV was established at a discount larger than 10%.

****Update****
The COV position was sold today at prices above $91, because the discount has fallen below 7%. If the deal fails, which I view as low probability, there would be some downside for COV. All in all the risk-reward was not as attractive as before. If the spread to the implied value of COV widens again, the position will be rebought.

The IMW Immobilien position has been trimmed in the last weeks at prices above €7. A updated post may follow.