Monday, 27 June 2016

Bought Flybe

Flybe

With the Brexit share prices have come down. I like the regional airline Flybe at the current price of 39.5 GBX.

Friday, 11 March 2016

Bought Essex Rental / Updates on several position / re-entered UMS United medical

Essex Rental

Essex Rental (ticker:ESSX) is up 30% on higher than average volume today. There is a write-up on seekingalpha. I have not much to add. The company has two subsidiaries. One is worth zero and the other more than the current market cap of Essex Rental. Because of the price action today, I believe now is a good time to initiate a position. Technically the debt of the worthless sub should be non-recourse. Maybe someone knows more. This is a specualative position and liquidity is low. This has to be sized accordingly.

Update Cleco

I have decided to hold on to the position after the sale was rejected by the commision. The hearing was webcasted and I listened to it. Should have sold the position with a small gain as soon as I realized a negative outcome is probable. The decision process looks very non fact-based to me. Although the decision to reject may be right. It looks like it played a role that the buyer was not American...

Update Medisana

As expected the money has arrive in the bank account. This was a nice gain in a short time period.

Medisana€ 2.80€ 2.702/25/20163/3/20163.70%

Update SPIL

The offer might not go through. Good that is a just an odd-lot. The downside should not be high. SPIL is not expensive at this price. The position is at a small loss. If this gets slaugthered as a broken arb I may increase the position

Spil$7.55$7.561/15/2016yes-0.13%

Update KWG Komunale Wohnen

At last Conwert has come out with a offer to acquiry shares of KWG. Because of the complex land transfer tax in Germany the company does not tender for all remaining shares. It is important not to get over 95%. The price on offer is €10.80. This was one of the more successful position with an IRR of 26.2% since the start of 2014.

KWG Komunale Wohnen€ 10.56€ 6.361/6/2014yes66.04%

Update Apple

As written this was a short-term play. As you could have seen on the portfolio tab of the blog, the position was already sold again. Yes, I think Apple is still undervalued... It is just that I also want to hold some cash. Since 2012 I went with near 100% stock at all times.

Apple$101.96$96.201/15/20163/4/20165.99%

Update snow

Same with SNOW. The tendered odd-lot was accepted and the position eliminated. I am not bullish on SNOW as a core long position because the maintenance capex looks high to me.

Snow$9.00$8.511/15/20162/11/20165.76%

Update Dream Global

Obviously with the current decision of the ECB and the low interest rate environment German Real estate is still very attractive. DRG has started to rise. There is also a write-up on seekingalpha. Not much to add here. This a big position and I intend to trim a little bit at higher prices.

Dream Global ReitCA$ 8.68CA$ 8.3012/2/2015yes6.18%

Update Pfandbriefbank 


Dt. Pfandbriefbank€ 9.49€ 8.662/5/2016yes9.58%

 This is a typical case of being early. Six days after purcase on 2/11 the stock was as cheap as €7.43. I did not dare to increase the already full position. That is the disadvantage of a bank stock it is not good to average down because you will get diluted at the buttom in most cases. Although this time no one already knew more...

Just look at the chart:



I am very happy with the results this year sofar. This also reminds me of the time when I bought a Greek stock in their crisis. The next day it was down 10% on one day and I felt terrible about my timing.

Re-entered UMS

UMS was already part of the blog portfolio:

UMS€ 10.15€ 9.409/5/20149/22/20147.98%

UMS€ 10.88€ 9.529/5/20144/28/201514.29%

Liquidity is very low but with patient limit orders, it was possible to built a small position for the blog again.

UMS€ 3.31€ 3.253/11/2016yes1.85%

If everything goes according to plan, it would look like this:

UMSFRA:UMS3.31-8.06%8.76%3.6liquidation
pre-tax IRR46.00%5/31/2016

Please fell free to comment and do your own homework as always!

Thursday, 25 February 2016

Bought Medisana at €2.70

Medisana is a special situation. There is an offer for €2.80 per share and the shares are trading around €2.70. These offers under the German law WPÜG are normally quite safe. Financing is safe because the cash is on a bank account at BHF bank. Caveat is that this is a Chinese bidder and volume is low.

As always do your own research. Original binding document is in German, only translation of the offer document is available in English.

Sunday, 7 February 2016

Bought Deutsche Pfandbriefbank

 Deutsche Pfandbriefbank

 European Bank's share prices have fallen sharply this year. I believe there could be cases of the baby being thron out with the bathwater and established a position in Deutsche Pfandbriefbank. A favourite blog of mine has a good write-up of the bank and due to the rather boring business nothing much has changed since then.

You can see how the blog portfolio is doing under the portfolio tab of the blog.

Update tender situations 

nametickersummcap% mcapodd lot minmaxannounced+1due dateprice nowprice minprice max
INTRAWEST RESORTS HOLDINGSsnow$50,000,000390,872,33112.79%yes9101/13/20162/10/20168.468.098.83
Siliconware Precisionspil$1,271,084,8544,802,458,26826.47%yes275 twd8.2512/23/20153/17/20167.667.278.12
Fortress Investmentfig$100,000,0002,134,164,6339.52%yes4.254.752/5/20163/4/20164.44.284.46

The tender situations are looking good. Snow has secured financing due to sale of IRCG:

"The Company will use a portion of its cash and cash equivalents on hand to fund the purchase of shares in the Tender Offer. The Tender Offer is not conditioned upon obtaining financing or any minimum number of shares being tendered; however, the Tender Offer is subject to a number of other terms and conditions, which are specified in the Offer to Purchase dated January 12, 2016, including the condition that the Company’s sale of IRCG to Diamond has been completed. As described in Note 2, "Significant Accounting Policies", the IRCG Transaction closed on January 29, 2016."
Fortress is another interesting situation to watch for now. They can easily finance the buy-back with cash on hand.

Friday, 15 January 2016

Bought SNOW, AAPL and Hornbach

With the market offering more reasonable put more money to work again.

SNOW


Snow does have an open dutch auction tender offer with odd-lot priority. I have bought 99 shares under $9 and will tender them for a profit of at least ~$40.


nametickersummcap% mcapodd lot minmaxannounced+1due dateprice nowprice minprice max

INTRAWEST RESORTS HOLDINGSsnow$50,000,000385,721,27412.96%yes9101/13/20162/10/20168.538.578.83
  

AAPL 

 This is just a short-term trade. Apple looks undervalued here. The expectations have come down a bit. The company still generates much cash. Although I see the low tax rate for foreign profits at risk here, when the OECD will finish their BEPS initiative.

Hornbach

The price dropped below €26 and this stock was on my watchlist to buy at this price. The last quarter was rather bad because of strong competition. Hornbach has a price guarantee and reacts on price decreases by their competitors. This means they "invest" in the perception of low prices. Customers should not feel the need to compare prices all the time.
Interestingly Hornbach offers free Wi-Fi in their DIQ megastores. If one finds a cheaper price online you get the cheaper price of the competitor minus 10% via their price guarantee. I see some intangible value here. Additionally I went to stores and looked around. The employees do not change all the time and seem to know their products quite well. For inventory management a SAP system is used.

SPIL

There is also a tender with an odd-lot priority open right now. The price is higher than the current share price.

Wednesday, 2 December 2015

Re-entered Dream Global

Today a position in Dream global Reit at CAD 8.30 was established. The original position was sold on 4/9/2015. See portfolio tab of the blog.

The Canadian dollar has fallen since the position was sold, but DRG's portfolio consists of Euro denominated office real estate in Germany. In connection with the now lower share price, I believe this is an attractive entry point.

source: Yahoo Finance


Thursday, 12 November 2015

Merger Arb Cleco:CNL

Cleco

I have not written much in past few month because there are fewer and fewer investments I like to invest in.

At the current price I have established a position in Cleco for the blog. There are some concerns the buy out will not go through.

For more information see the following link. This was written by one of my favourite writer at seekingalpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3460066-safe-11-percent-annual-return-with-cleco


name targetsymbolpricediscount upsidebid total

ClecoCNL49.82-10.67%11.94%55.77

Weight watchers

I have also sold the full weight watchers position at $24.81. The Oprah effect was a little bit too fast and heavy for me. Maybe there will be a better point to rentry. Additionally the dollar is relatively high for me and I will change this back into euro for a nice additional gain.


Stockpriceprice EntryDate EntryActiveReturnv S&P500 [€]Annualized Return

Weight Watchers$24.81$19.001/9/201511/12/201530.58%20.10%37.33%