Friday, 12 December 2014

Sold IMW/Sirius bought sberbank

IMW

The rest of the IMW position was sold at current prices of ~9.18€.


#sharesequitydeferred taxP/EQP/(EQ+DT)price
3/31/201416,466,6668.57 €1.07 €1.070.95€ 9.18
pro forma16,466,6669.21 €1.07 €1.000.89€ 9.18
9/31/201416,466,666€ 8.83€ 1.091.040.93€ 9.18


weight
9/30/20133/31/20133/31/2014pro forma09/31/2014
1Borrowings180,449,546182,090180,347146,500150,156
1Financial Derivative Liabilities6,389,0039,3993,5073,5070
1minority interest book3,884,7953,7204,2954,2954,429
0.5Pension/Employee Liabilities470,181455430430445
1Remaining purchase price liability Dukes Court2,7009,700000
1Cash/Marketable Securities-11,710,354-26,297-10,684-48,754-47,511
1short-term financial assets-7,294,944-5,476-2,742-3,990-2,392
1other long-term assets ( pledged bank deposits)0-1,000000
sum
172,190,927172,591175,153101,988105,126

Current/Non-Current/Property321,965,040315,427341,806277,598276,138

LTV53.48%54.72%51.24%36.74%38.07%

My pro forma estimate was quite near the real numbers. As the price has risen there is no clear margin of safety left in the stock, albeit I believe it to be still undervalued a little bit.

An other way to look at the situation is as follows, if IMW would consider selling itself:
net debt = 105,126
mcap= 9.18x16,466,666= 151,164
ev= 256,290
- non Valbonne@book = 3,488 (Vorratsimmobilien)+22,440 (Austerlitz)+10,700 (Industrieweg)=36,628
= 219,662 (implied value Valbonne)

cold rent 2015* = 17,600
multiplier Valbonne = 219,662/17,600= 12.5
realistic multiplier Berlin property = 18
Value Valbonne = 316,800
- 219,662 (implied value Valbonne)
= 97,138 or 5.90 per share
fair value = 5.90+9.18= 15.08€
upside = 64%

As I don't believe a sale is imminent, the position was sold. Management has now the opportunity to destroy value, because of the cash balance.
  

Sirius 

The price has risen. The stock was listed in Johannesburg, too. The current price is 5.93 or 0.41€. In London 0.405. The new listing and the announcement of an accreditive aquisition have driven the stock price higher. As I have no faith in management to outperform, this was a good oppurtunity to sell. Looking at assets and current earnings there is no satisfactory margin of safety left for me.  The dilutive capital increases without issuing rights have favoured the investors with large stakes. The interest of small investors like me seem to be of little interest.

Sberbank

A very small position in Russian sberbank was established. The rest of the cash will propably be deployed in other east european assets and in commodities stocks, as there seem to be bargains in the markets today. Sberbank is sensitive to the ruble and thereby to the price of oil. All Russian stocks have of sort of an commodity angle. A valuation of sberbank does not make a lot of sense to me. This is a contrarian bet and kind of a binary option on the common sense of the Russian authorities. A total loss is not implausible.

Links Sberbank:
Investor relations
Kerrisdale Capital letter for Q3 2013 @beyondproxy.

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