Sold IMW/Sirius bought sberbank

IMW

The rest of the IMW position was sold at current prices of ~9.18€.

	#shares	equity	deferred tax	P/EQ	P/(EQ+DT)	price
3/31/2014	16,466,666	8.57 €	1.07 €	1.07	0.95	€ 9.18
pro forma	16,466,666	9.21 €	1.07 €	1.00	0.89	€ 9.18
9/31/2014	16,466,666	€ 8.83	€ 1.09	1.04	0.93	€ 9.18

weight		9/30/2013	3/31/2013	3/31/2014	pro forma	09/31/2014
1	Borrowings	180,449,546	182,090	180,347	146,500	150,156
1	Financial Derivative Liabilities	6,389,003	9,399	3,507	3,507	0
1	minority interest book	3,884,795	3,720	4,295	4,295	4,429
0.5	Pension/Employee Liabilities	470,181	455	430	430	445
1	Remaining purchase price liability Dukes Court	2,700	9,700	0	0	0
1	Cash/Marketable Securities	-11,710,354	-26,297	-10,684	-48,754	-47,511
1	short-term financial assets	-7,294,944	-5,476	-2,742	-3,990	-2,392
1	other long-term assets ( pledged bank deposits)	0	-1,000	0	0	0
sum		172,190,927	172,591	175,153	101,988	105,126
	Current/Non-Current/Property	321,965,040	315,427	341,806	277,598	276,138
	LTV	53.48%	54.72%	51.24%	36.74%	38.07%

My pro forma estimate was quite near the real numbers. As the price has risen there is no clear margin of safety left in the stock, albeit I believe it to be still undervalued a little bit.

An other way to look at the situation is as follows, if IMW would consider selling itself:
net debt = 105,126
mcap= 9.18x16,466,666= 151,164
ev= 256,290
- non Valbonne@book = 3,488 (Vorratsimmobilien)+22,440 (Austerlitz)+10,700 (Industrieweg)=36,628
= 219,662 (implied value Valbonne)

cold rent 2015* = 17,600
multiplier Valbonne = 219,662/17,600= 12.5
realistic multiplier Berlin property = 18
Value Valbonne = 316,800
- 219,662 (implied value Valbonne)
= 97,138 or 5.90 per share
fair value = 5.90+9.18= 15.08€
upside = 64%

As I don't believe a sale is imminent, the position was sold. Management has now the opportunity to destroy value, because of the cash balance.
  

Sirius 

The price has risen. The stock was listed in Johannesburg, too. The current price is 5.93 or 0.41€. In London 0.405. The new listing and the announcement of an accreditive aquisition have driven the stock price higher. As I have no faith in management to outperform, this was a good oppurtunity to sell. Looking at assets and current earnings there is no satisfactory margin of safety left for me.  The dilutive capital increases without issuing rights have favoured the investors with large stakes. The interest of small investors like me seem to be of little interest.

Sberbank

A very small position in Russian sberbank was established. The rest of the cash will propably be deployed in other east european assets and in commodities stocks, as there seem to be bargains in the markets today. Sberbank is sensitive to the ruble and thereby to the price of oil. All Russian stocks have of sort of an commodity angle. A valuation of sberbank does not make a lot of sense to me. This is a contrarian bet and kind of a binary option on the common sense of the Russian authorities. A total loss is not implausible.

Links Sberbank:
Investor relations
Kerrisdale Capital letter for Q3 2013 @beyondproxy.